***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 29.3 0.2 56.2 55.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.9 29.4 0.2 59.7 55.6 28.3 28.7 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.4 29.5 0.3 60.7 57.1 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.8 22.2 27.4 -0.6 44.0 42.8 21.5 22.5 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 29.9 29.4 27.3 -0.5 47.1 45.0 28.7 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 27.3 27.3 24.4 -1.1 33.2 32.0 27.3 28.1 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.7 29.1 0.1 55.2 52.3 28.2 28.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.0 25.1 -0.8 40.3 38.8 16.9 17.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 29.3 29.2 27.8 -0.2 51.7 49.6 28.3 29.1 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.7 26.1 -0.4 48.5 45.2 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.8 26.8 -0.5 46.8 44.0 28.4 28.9 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.0 26.3 -0.7 41.5 39.3 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.1 25.9 -0.9 39.6 36.9 28.8 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.2 27.1 -0.1 55.3 50.0 27.7 28.9 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 30.4 30.0 28.4 -0.5 46.4 44.7 29.6 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.0 26.5 -0.7 44.3 39.7 29.4 30.1 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.3 28.3 29.0 0.3 59.8 56.0 27.6 28.0 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.6 24.9 -0.6 44.8 42.6 27.3 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.7 28.9 29.5 0.4 62.1 58.0 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 22.8 23.0 22.5 -1.0 29.4 33.0 23.1 23.5 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 29.3 29.3 28.8 -0.1 52.5 51.7 28.5 29.2 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.9 29.2 0.5 63.7 59.8 28.1 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.1 29.2 0.4 62.8 58.4 28.0 28.7 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.5 27.1 -0.1 54.2 50.5 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.6 29.4 27.8 -0.2 50.3 49.4 28.7 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 28.0 28.3 25.6 -1.3 25.5 28.1 28.5 29.0 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.0 28.3 0.0 52.8 51.4 28.1 29.0 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.4 29.6 27.6 -0.7 41.1 40.0 29.2 30.1 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.7 22.7 23.8 -0.7 40.6 39.5 22.6 23.2 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.0 29.5 0.2 58.6 55.4 28.3 28.7 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------