***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 30.5 0.6 60.4 57.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.6 30.3 30.5 0.7 62.2 57.6 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.5 30.6 0.8 60.8 59.2 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.5 28.8 0.1 48.2 52.3 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.2 28.6 0.2 50.5 53.6 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.6 27.9 26.1 -0.1 46.6 50.0 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.7 30.2 0.5 61.4 56.0 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 16.3 17.2 26.6 0.0 48.4 51.8 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.2 29.0 0.4 57.3 56.3 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.2 28.3 27.4 0.2 54.0 54.1 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.5 28.2 0.3 53.1 54.3 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.9 27.8 27.9 0.1 49.4 52.6 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.0 28.8 27.4 0.0 45.7 51.0 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.8 28.2 0.4 56.2 55.1 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.6 30.3 29.7 0.4 51.1 54.8 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 30.5 29.6 27.9 0.1 46.4 51.8 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.5 30.0 0.6 61.9 57.3 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 26.5 27.8 26.3 0.1 52.8 52.7 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.1 30.6 0.8 62.3 58.9 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 22.4 23.2 23.9 -0.3 44.7 48.1 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.7 30.0 0.6 59.1 57.2 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.8 30.1 0.8 62.4 58.8 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.9 28.9 30.3 0.9 60.3 59.4 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.5 28.3 0.5 57.7 56.3 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.8 29.0 0.4 57.3 56.0 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.1 27.2 -0.4 36.6 45.6 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.6 29.5 0.5 58.8 56.6 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.5 29.9 29.1 0.1 46.7 52.2 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.8 22.7 25.1 0.0 50.9 51.5 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.6 30.6 0.7 61.9 57.8 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------