***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 30.0 0.5 60.6 57.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.3 29.9 0.5 59.7 56.4 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.6 31.0 30.1 0.6 62.8 58.3 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 21.3 24.2 28.2 -0.1 56.5 50.2 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.9 31.2 28.1 0.1 57.3 52.3 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.0 29.2 25.4 -0.2 51.4 48.2 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.0 29.6 0.4 58.0 55.4 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.9 18.8 26.1 0.1 54.6 52.5 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 30.7 31.4 28.4 0.3 60.3 55.4 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 30.2 30.4 26.8 0.2 58.3 54.2 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.3 31.3 27.6 0.2 59.1 53.6 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.5 27.3 0.1 54.8 52.5 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.7 30.3 26.7 -0.1 51.7 50.2 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 30.0 30.7 27.7 0.4 61.7 55.3 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 28.9 31.8 29.0 0.1 58.2 51.8 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 31.1 31.3 27.3 0.0 55.2 50.5 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.4 29.5 0.5 59.1 56.9 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.5 25.8 0.2 57.8 53.5 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.7 30.2 30.1 0.6 61.6 57.6 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.0 23.5 -0.1 51.3 50.3 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.7 31.6 29.4 0.4 61.4 56.8 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.9 30.4 29.6 0.7 62.9 58.6 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 30.0 30.3 29.8 0.7 62.8 58.2 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 30.2 30.3 27.8 0.5 62.5 56.5 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 31.1 31.8 28.5 0.3 60.4 55.3 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 30.2 29.6 26.6 -0.4 44.9 45.9 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 30.3 31.1 29.0 0.4 60.2 55.9 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 28.8 31.1 28.4 -0.1 55.3 49.1 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.5 24.7 0.1 55.8 52.8 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.4 30.1 0.5 60.8 56.7 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------