***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 29.0 0.0 56.4 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.3 28.8 29.1 0.1 54.3 54.1 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.9 29.5 29.1 0.1 57.6 53.8 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 20.5 21.6 27.1 -0.9 39.7 42.3 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 27.4 28.5 26.9 -0.7 42.9 44.1 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 26.2 26.9 24.0 -1.5 32.0 34.0 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.7 28.8 0.0 53.2 52.7 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 15.9 16.7 24.8 -1.0 35.8 40.2 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.1 28.5 27.4 -0.4 45.8 47.6 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.0 27.5 25.7 -0.7 39.7 44.1 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 27.2 28.3 26.4 -0.8 40.7 43.4 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.8 26.0 -1.0 38.0 40.2 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 27.6 28.2 25.3 -1.3 35.3 36.8 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 26.4 27.2 26.7 -0.3 45.2 47.9 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.5 29.3 27.8 -0.8 40.5 43.7 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 28.2 28.6 25.9 -1.1 35.3 38.5 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 26.7 28.8 28.8 0.2 57.5 54.4 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 26.2 26.2 24.6 -0.8 35.2 42.7 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.6 29.2 0.2 55.8 54.8 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 22.0 22.1 22.1 -1.3 30.0 36.1 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.0 28.4 -0.2 51.2 50.5 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 26.9 29.4 28.8 0.3 58.3 55.9 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.7 29.4 28.8 0.2 55.1 54.2 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 26.6 27.4 26.8 -0.3 45.8 48.4 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.2 27.4 -0.3 49.4 49.1 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.4 27.0 25.1 -1.7 27.1 32.4 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.1 29.0 28.0 -0.1 53.2 50.8 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 28.4 29.4 27.2 -1.1 36.0 40.0 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 21.4 21.7 23.5 -0.9 33.2 40.8 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.0 29.2 0.1 55.8 53.8 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------