***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 9999.0 0.0 27.9 -0.5 45.2 45.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 28.8 28.6 28.1 -0.3 49.5 49.8 27.9 28.6 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 29.7 29.2 28.0 -0.4 46.6 47.5 27.6 29.5 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 20.7 21.0 25.3 -1.5 30.8 30.4 21.1 22.3 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 27.6 27.4 25.7 -1.4 30.8 31.8 27.5 29.7 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 25.5 25.1 22.1 -2.5 12.1 14.5 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 29.1 28.6 27.7 -0.7 45.9 45.0 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 14.9 14.9 22.8 -2.1 22.7 22.8 15.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 27.2 27.1 26.5 -1.2 35.1 34.8 26.9 28.7 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 26.5 26.7 24.3 -1.6 29.7 30.3 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 26.7 27.0 25.0 -1.7 27.2 27.5 27.4 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 25.6 25.9 24.0 -2.1 23.1 22.4 27.1 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 27.1 27.1 24.1 -2.1 22.7 22.1 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.2 27.7 25.7 -1.1 39.1 37.1 27.3 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 28.9 29.0 27.2 -1.5 29.4 29.8 29.2 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 28.0 27.8 24.8 -1.8 25.9 25.8 28.4 29.7 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 28.5 28.6 27.8 -0.2 51.9 51.5 27.5 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 25.3 26.1 22.9 -1.8 26.8 27.2 26.6 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 28.8 28.7 28.2 -0.2 51.0 51.7 27.3 28.7 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 20.9 20.7 20.4 -2.4 19.0 20.2 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.4 28.5 27.4 -1.1 37.3 37.2 27.2 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 29.1 29.2 28.1 0.2 58.7 56.5 27.7 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 29.3 29.2 27.8 -0.3 48.4 49.2 27.2 29.2 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 26.7 27.0 25.4 -1.2 35.8 34.8 26.8 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.8 28.3 26.2 -1.2 35.6 35.0 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 26.7 26.5 23.4 -2.6 13.9 15.8 27.8 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.4 28.4 26.9 -0.9 40.2 39.6 27.3 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 28.4 28.8 25.8 -1.9 25.2 25.2 29.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 20.6 20.6 21.9 -2.0 23.4 24.6 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 29.1 28.8 28.2 -0.4 48.7 48.2 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------