***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 18.3 -0.2 44.8 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.8 18.3 -0.2 45.9 47.8 15.0 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.0 18.4 0.0 49.9 51.6 17.5 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.7 13.0 16.1 -0.7 27.6 31.4 13.0 13.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.0 16.0 -0.5 30.1 35.2 14.1 14.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 12.7 12.8 14.2 -0.6 27.6 31.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 18.3 -0.3 43.5 44.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.6 8.4 14.0 -0.5 32.5 35.8 8.4 9.1 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.4 16.5 -0.3 39.2 42.3 15.3 15.7 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.2 14.8 -0.4 38.4 40.5 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.9 15.5 -0.5 33.3 36.8 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.7 12.9 14.8 -0.6 30.0 34.3 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.9 13.9 14.5 -0.5 29.7 33.7 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 16.3 -0.3 39.9 42.9 15.6 16.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.5 17.4 -0.4 35.0 39.7 16.4 16.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.2 15.2 -0.6 28.6 32.4 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.6 17.9 -0.2 49.3 47.8 16.0 16.6 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.5 13.9 -0.4 36.0 38.5 13.3 14.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.7 18.3 0.0 50.4 51.2 15.5 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 9.0 9.4 12.0 -0.6 29.3 34.0 9.5 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.1 17.6 -0.2 40.0 45.7 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.6 18.1 0.1 54.1 54.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.4 18.1 0.0 52.6 52.1 14.9 15.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.7 16.2 -0.2 42.7 45.2 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.2 16.8 -0.4 38.9 40.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 13.8 13.8 14.0 -0.9 19.0 24.1 14.2 14.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.6 17.4 -0.3 41.5 43.4 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 13.8 13.7 16.6 -0.7 26.0 30.6 14.1 14.6 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.8 13.4 -0.4 37.7 40.3 12.8 13.0 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.1 18.5 -0.1 45.3 48.3 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------