***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 0.3 57.1 55.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.2 19.1 0.3 58.7 55.5 15.5 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.5 19.1 0.5 57.8 58.6 17.5 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.2 16.8 -0.2 49.4 48.9 13.0 13.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.2 16.6 -0.1 51.9 51.2 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.7 14.9 -0.1 49.2 48.2 13.3 13.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.3 19.0 0.1 55.1 53.7 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.0 14.8 -0.1 48.5 49.4 8.5 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.3 17.1 0.1 54.0 55.0 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.9 15.4 0.0 51.8 52.3 15.6 15.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.8 16.2 0.0 53.5 52.8 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.8 15.7 0.0 50.5 51.2 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.0 15.1 0.0 48.7 51.1 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.7 17.0 0.1 53.5 53.4 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.9 17.9 0.1 53.4 52.9 16.2 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.6 15.8 -0.1 49.5 51.0 15.8 16.6 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.1 18.5 0.2 56.5 54.2 15.9 16.9 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.3 14.6 -0.1 50.1 50.8 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.4 19.1 0.4 61.1 57.7 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.9 12.9 -0.3 42.4 45.9 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.1 18.2 0.3 56.0 56.3 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.0 18.6 0.4 61.0 57.4 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 18.8 0.5 61.1 58.8 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.8 16.8 0.2 54.9 54.9 15.8 16.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.9 17.4 0.1 52.9 53.2 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.0 14.9 -0.3 43.6 45.1 14.5 15.1 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 18.1 0.2 54.5 54.0 14.9 15.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.6 17.2 -0.2 48.6 49.1 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.3 14.0 -0.1 47.9 49.7 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.3 19.2 0.3 57.8 56.3 15.4 16.1 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------