***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.5 0.1 55.4 52.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.7 18.6 0.0 50.8 50.2 14.7 15.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 17.2 18.3 18.6 0.1 54.5 52.7 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.5 13.6 16.5 -0.5 39.4 43.1 12.5 14.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.3 14.0 16.3 -0.3 43.4 45.7 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 12.5 13.0 14.6 -0.4 41.5 44.1 12.5 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 15.5 16.6 18.5 -0.1 49.8 49.0 15.1 16.6 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.3 14.5 -0.3 44.2 45.9 8.6 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.6 16.7 -0.1 48.8 50.2 14.8 15.6 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.3 15.1 -0.2 46.4 47.7 15.0 15.6 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 14.3 15.2 15.9 -0.2 45.1 47.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.3 15.4 -0.3 44.0 46.1 12.7 13.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.4 14.4 14.7 -0.4 42.6 44.3 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 15.4 16.1 16.6 -0.2 46.2 48.0 15.3 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 16.0 16.5 17.7 -0.2 46.2 47.7 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 14.8 15.3 15.5 -0.4 40.0 43.7 15.1 15.8 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.9 16.9 18.1 0.0 51.7 50.3 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.8 14.1 14.3 -0.3 46.2 46.4 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.2 18.6 0.1 53.3 51.7 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 10.0 12.6 -0.4 43.6 44.3 9.7 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.7 15.8 17.8 0.0 52.8 51.8 14.8 15.7 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.7 18.2 0.2 54.5 53.0 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.8 18.3 0.1 54.3 52.3 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 15.3 15.9 16.4 -0.1 49.4 49.2 15.2 16.0 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.7 15.6 17.0 -0.1 48.6 48.7 15.0 15.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.5 14.0 14.5 -0.6 35.4 40.3 14.0 14.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.2 17.7 0.0 52.0 50.3 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 13.5 14.3 16.9 -0.5 38.2 43.0 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.6 13.4 13.7 -0.3 46.5 46.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 15.2 16.1 18.7 0.0 51.6 50.8 15.1 16.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------