***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.3 -0.2 46.5 48.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.1 18.3 -0.1 54.5 49.8 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 16.7 17.2 18.3 -0.1 47.6 49.8 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 11.9 11.9 16.1 -0.8 32.1 36.2 12.0 13.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.1 13.9 15.9 -0.7 32.9 37.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.1 14.0 -0.8 29.9 34.3 12.3 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.4 18.3 -0.3 51.3 48.6 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.8 8.5 13.9 -0.7 33.2 38.2 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.4 16.3 -0.5 38.4 41.9 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.7 14.6 -0.6 36.0 40.2 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 14.1 13.9 15.4 -0.6 33.9 39.1 13.8 15.6 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 12.5 12.5 14.8 -0.7 32.4 37.2 12.6 13.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.7 14.3 -0.9 30.4 33.3 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 15.0 15.7 16.1 -0.5 37.2 42.4 15.6 16.3 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.8 16.2 17.2 -0.6 37.1 40.8 16.1 17.3 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 14.1 15.0 15.0 -0.9 31.3 34.1 15.0 15.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.9 18.0 -0.1 56.7 50.2 15.7 16.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 12.7 12.8 13.8 -0.6 33.6 39.2 12.8 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.4 18.3 -0.1 52.9 50.7 15.0 16.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 8.6 8.8 12.0 -0.8 31.1 36.7 9.1 10.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.3 17.5 -0.3 41.8 45.5 14.3 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.9 18.0 0.1 56.9 52.6 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.2 18.0 -0.1 48.4 50.0 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.4 16.0 -0.4 38.9 43.9 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.0 16.7 -0.4 40.3 44.5 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 13.0 12.8 14.0 -1.2 24.0 28.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.1 17.4 -0.3 43.2 46.3 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.1 13.7 16.5 -0.9 30.9 34.8 13.7 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 11.4 12.0 13.2 -0.5 34.5 40.1 12.0 12.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.3 18.5 -0.2 51.5 49.4 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------