***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 17.2 -0.8 34.9 35.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.2 17.3 -0.7 39.3 38.1 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 18.1 17.8 17.6 -0.4 45.1 42.4 16.5 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 11.4 11.5 15.0 -1.2 28.6 28.6 11.7 13.3 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 12.8 12.8 15.1 -1.0 30.8 30.7 12.9 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 11.7 11.6 13.1 -1.1 28.3 29.3 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.3 -0.9 32.3 34.8 15.0 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.2 7.2 12.8 -1.1 27.3 29.3 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.3 15.7 -0.9 33.3 33.2 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.2 14.0 -0.8 34.6 35.4 14.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 13.9 13.7 14.6 -1.1 27.2 29.8 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 11.6 11.7 13.4 -1.2 23.9 25.8 11.9 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.2 13.9 -0.9 33.8 33.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.3 15.2 15.6 -0.7 39.6 39.2 14.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.6 15.7 16.9 -1.0 33.1 33.7 15.7 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.6 14.1 14.5 -1.0 31.9 32.3 14.1 15.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 17.1 16.4 16.9 -0.7 41.2 38.8 15.9 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 12.3 12.3 12.9 -0.8 30.7 33.2 12.4 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 15.8 15.5 17.4 -0.5 43.4 41.5 15.0 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 8.2 8.7 10.6 -1.0 28.3 30.1 8.8 9.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.5 13.8 16.9 -0.8 34.8 35.0 13.8 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 15.2 14.9 17.5 -0.2 48.0 47.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 15.3 15.0 17.2 -0.4 45.4 43.3 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.7 14.9 15.4 -0.6 37.9 38.7 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 13.7 13.2 16.0 -1.2 28.1 28.8 13.9 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 12.6 12.7 12.6 -1.5 19.1 21.2 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 13.2 14.1 16.4 -1.1 29.0 30.1 14.4 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.9 15.7 -1.2 28.1 28.8 13.4 13.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 11.8 12.5 -0.6 38.6 39.8 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.4 15.8 17.6 -0.7 38.3 38.1 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------