***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 45.5 37.0 32.3 94.7 59.3 50.7 29.8 34.3 51.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 52.2 52.1 31.4 90.4 56.8 49.1 32.6 45.1 58.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 44.6 43.0 34.3 102.0 59.9 53.2 32.1 36.9 45.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 60.9 69.2 41.7 114.9 69.7 58.0 46.4 52.5 63.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 41.7 50.7 40.3 103.8 65.0 53.3 27.8 36.1 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 67.5 69.5 59.2 131.7 70.1 64.2 35.4 50.5 65.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 44.9 42.9 32.1 89.8 55.6 48.3 24.7 38.1 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 72.6 76.5 43.8 103.9 58.9 52.5 43.8 61.8 103.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 50.6 53.5 40.8 98.3 63.7 51.4 28.4 44.9 54.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 60.6 69.1 46.9 100.5 61.0 51.4 42.8 52.8 71.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 45.6 52.7 33.8 105.1 65.4 51.2 25.7 39.4 52.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 54.7 60.7 34.4 112.7 63.2 55.2 31.7 48.7 70.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 41.0 48.5 42.5 120.8 66.2 58.7 21.1 36.6 48.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 66.3 74.0 47.5 105.8 62.0 54.4 41.1 56.5 79.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 34.7 64.0 37.2 128.0 73.8 61.1 17.4 26.8 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 35.0 42.0 40.0 123.2 70.0 58.6 24.0 29.2 39.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 57.3 56.9 30.5 81.2 52.3 44.5 35.8 49.4 69.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 60.6 59.0 55.8 102.5 56.8 52.4 37.7 53.4 67.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 54.6 62.6 31.6 93.2 59.1 50.6 36.8 49.0 67.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 54.8 48.9 55.6 101.1 54.3 51.3 33.1 46.0 59.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 42.1 47.0 34.9 98.9 63.1 53.2 33.9 36.2 50.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 38.8 54.7 30.4 81.6 55.6 46.3 40.8 52.7 60.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 46.9 48.2 33.4 97.6 58.8 51.3 32.6 40.8 49.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 62.7 57.2 47.5 106.3 59.1 54.2 40.6 55.2 74.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 48.7 52.8 41.8 99.8 62.3 51.8 33.3 45.8 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 40.5 53.7 34.5 126.9 68.2 59.8 26.1 34.4 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 48.5 50.7 40.4 98.2 60.4 51.1 25.7 38.7 56.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 39.3 57.9 40.9 126.9 73.1 60.3 23.2 28.0 50.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 79.3 84.0 56.1 101.1 57.5 51.5 59.3 72.3 94.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 45.9 44.9 32.5 96.4 58.5 51.3 26.0 41.6 48.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------