***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.5 23.7 7.1 123.6 81.6 59.6 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.1 18.7 5.6 84.9 73.1 49.0 2.6 5.4 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.7 25.6 6.4 109.3 78.6 55.7 2.6 5.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 25.6 40.8 11.4 190.8 83.0 63.7 6.2 9.6 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.7 16.9 10.6 156.2 80.9 59.4 2.3 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 19.6 32.3 16.2 174.6 81.2 63.8 3.3 8.6 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 17.6 5.9 86.8 73.7 51.7 2.3 5.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.4 19.8 9.7 112.1 71.6 52.0 7.7 14.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.4 20.0 9.4 121.8 78.2 55.0 4.7 9.3 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.8 24.8 10.1 113.4 73.1 52.7 5.8 11.6 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.9 28.0 9.1 149.4 81.3 56.9 3.4 12.8 21.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.7 21.1 8.3 128.1 75.8 54.1 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.9 21.1 11.4 147.6 79.7 60.8 0.9 4.8 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.7 18.6 9.2 107.0 77.0 53.9 4.8 9.5 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.5 40.9 10.4 234.1 88.2 65.8 4.0 8.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.5 21.1 11.2 171.6 81.3 61.3 2.2 7.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.9 22.5 5.6 76.5 71.5 48.1 4.0 8.5 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.2 18.9 10.9 105.6 70.3 51.4 4.9 8.6 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 21.9 5.7 92.7 73.6 50.0 2.1 6.3 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 16.7 10.8 95.0 63.0 48.5 5.1 10.8 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 23.2 7.2 111.5 80.9 56.5 2.6 9.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.4 12.8 5.0 68.4 68.3 47.1 3.2 6.8 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.3 17.5 6.4 110.8 76.3 51.9 2.3 4.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.8 28.4 9.3 112.2 76.1 53.9 7.5 13.8 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 21.4 29.1 9.8 136.3 79.9 60.7 1.7 11.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.9 24.3 8.7 170.5 79.8 62.3 1.0 5.8 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 20.7 9.0 128.5 79.4 60.3 4.8 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.5 42.1 11.5 217.6 85.3 64.4 3.0 5.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 25.7 11.4 105.4 68.6 50.2 7.8 16.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.4 15.3 6.0 97.4 75.8 52.1 2.1 5.4 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------