***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.7 24.5 9.0 134.9 79.7 56.2 0.9 6.1 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 14.7 16.8 8.7 102.9 76.5 55.5 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.6 13.3 8.3 120.1 76.5 57.6 0.9 4.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.4 20.6 9.8 116.0 76.8 52.8 1.3 5.1 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.0 15.4 9.4 111.0 76.6 54.0 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.7 8.6 13.0 119.5 71.9 54.2 0.3 1.5 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 16.4 8.9 104.7 76.7 54.1 1.7 4.9 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.0 20.9 11.2 108.5 71.3 53.3 2.5 6.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.3 16.1 9.5 109.7 76.1 55.3 0.8 3.9 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 20.5 11.9 108.3 70.9 54.1 1.7 7.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.6 25.0 8.9 127.4 77.1 53.8 1.4 4.4 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 0.7 14.1 8.8 135.5 77.6 53.8 0.0 1.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.3 14.4 10.8 135.8 74.5 54.3 0.4 5.4 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.2 38.0 13.2 138.8 78.4 57.6 0.4 4.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.3 10.0 8.9 131.0 76.9 55.1 0.1 1.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.8 13.1 9.9 138.1 75.5 54.5 1.3 3.2 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.4 19.2 8.9 103.3 76.2 52.1 1.3 7.4 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.1 25.0 13.9 106.6 70.0 52.5 0.7 9.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 17.1 23.3 8.7 109.1 78.4 57.0 0.5 5.3 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 15.4 14.2 98.3 66.5 51.9 4.7 9.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.4 22.5 8.1 117.4 76.2 56.0 1.2 7.3 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.1 17.4 9.5 101.4 76.9 54.5 2.3 6.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 19.2 29.4 9.3 124.6 79.2 57.8 0.3 0.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.3 20.0 11.7 121.9 75.4 55.4 1.3 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.1 22.4 10.9 127.0 80.4 54.3 0.3 8.0 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.3 14.6 7.8 126.1 75.1 55.8 0.4 2.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 29.9 11.0 133.8 80.0 54.7 0.4 3.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.8 9.2 9.8 128.7 76.6 53.5 0.8 3.2 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 34.4 14.2 105.6 67.8 52.1 5.8 13.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.7 20.2 8.8 111.7 76.1 56.9 1.4 4.6 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------