***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.5 14.6 8.3 93.4 69.2 52.3 0.9 3.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.2 9.3 100.0 65.7 51.1 0.9 2.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.8 23.5 9.3 111.4 70.6 57.1 1.0 6.9 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.3 26.4 8.9 88.0 70.9 59.4 3.9 5.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.2 14.1 8.9 81.7 70.0 55.1 0.1 2.3 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.2 24.5 12.3 97.3 71.6 58.7 1.7 8.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.7 15.0 10.6 108.8 67.4 51.2 1.7 5.3 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.3 21.5 8.6 87.5 66.7 51.6 3.5 13.1 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.0 19.8 9.8 87.1 70.1 52.4 0.3 2.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.9 28.2 10.2 88.8 68.8 51.8 2.8 6.0 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.4 14.8 6.3 82.1 70.0 50.8 0.6 3.3 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.9 5.9 84.3 68.0 53.0 0.2 6.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.3 10.5 7.3 84.5 67.8 54.5 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.0 28.5 11.7 94.7 68.5 56.0 0.8 9.4 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.0 11.1 8.5 115.0 75.8 60.6 1.2 6.9 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 13.1 7.0 87.2 69.9 55.2 2.4 4.8 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 14.5 9.6 87.5 64.0 47.5 1.7 4.6 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 19.5 12.5 88.6 66.3 51.5 2.7 7.1 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.3 17.0 8.6 96.3 65.7 51.6 1.8 4.8 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.0 10.3 74.5 59.3 47.9 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.4 26.7 8.9 94.2 74.6 56.0 0.2 7.5 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.7 25.0 9.1 86.0 66.9 50.0 3.8 6.6 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.2 14.6 8.4 92.1 66.2 52.0 1.4 4.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.9 30.8 11.8 101.6 70.7 56.6 0.8 7.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.6 13.8 10.3 82.8 66.0 52.5 0.3 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.5 16.1 5.3 80.8 67.7 56.2 2.2 6.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.3 14.0 10.4 88.7 66.2 51.8 2.5 6.7 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.8 23.0 8.1 101.2 74.7 59.3 3.6 6.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 25.4 12.0 83.2 63.6 50.4 4.2 9.7 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.4 14.2 9.5 110.0 67.6 53.8 2.4 5.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------