***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 7.4 8.0 62.1 53.2 43.4 3.0 6.6 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.2 7.8 75.1 57.0 45.8 3.1 9.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.3 82.2 57.2 48.6 3.3 6.6 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.6 11.5 98.5 63.6 55.9 2.1 6.2 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.7 11.5 90.2 59.6 51.6 2.3 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.7 16.9 17.7 145.9 80.3 69.2 1.1 4.9 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.5 4.9 6.8 62.9 49.6 42.8 3.0 4.9 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 11.9 16.4 14.4 107.7 65.8 56.4 5.3 9.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.2 12.2 87.3 59.7 50.7 3.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.7 14.7 96.4 62.2 52.5 1.2 7.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.9 9.5 83.5 58.3 47.4 1.1 3.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.7 19.0 11.4 109.3 67.3 57.8 0.1 6.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 2.5 7.3 13.0 119.5 71.3 62.3 0.2 0.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 9.1 11.9 13.5 93.2 60.9 52.4 1.8 7.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.6 5.2 9.5 90.6 62.5 54.5 0.9 2.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 2.6 2.6 11.9 111.9 65.7 58.3 0.3 1.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.4 8.1 6.4 60.4 47.6 41.3 3.6 8.2 11.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.1 13.0 18.5 109.4 62.1 56.3 2.4 7.6 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.1 10.0 8.5 79.9 57.7 47.1 2.8 9.0 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 7.5 14.7 20.4 132.3 71.6 64.6 2.5 5.8 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.8 10.7 86.0 61.2 52.4 3.1 6.4 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.5 8.5 6.8 68.0 52.1 44.1 3.4 7.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.4 9.3 78.7 54.8 46.2 2.8 7.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.9 14.6 97.3 59.2 52.8 4.3 7.6 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.7 7.7 10.8 79.2 56.3 48.8 2.4 7.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 3.7 10.9 12.7 136.2 74.2 64.9 0.0 1.4 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.5 10.1 71.2 53.7 45.7 2.6 5.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.0 10.2 11.4 102.7 64.6 56.9 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 13.3 17.5 18.4 110.6 63.9 57.6 3.6 11.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.7 8.3 74.9 57.0 46.8 3.1 5.4 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------