***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.0 29.2 -0.7 43.1 41.3 28.5 29.3 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.0 28.8 29.7 -0.2 51.0 49.7 28.3 28.8 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.0 29.5 -0.3 48.4 47.6 28.4 29.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 21.2 21.4 27.4 -1.1 29.5 31.9 21.6 22.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.6 28.9 27.6 -0.8 36.9 38.6 28.8 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.5 25.1 -1.0 33.1 34.1 27.5 28.2 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.6 29.4 -0.4 49.0 47.3 28.1 28.6 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.8 17.1 25.8 -0.6 44.7 41.6 17.0 17.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.8 28.0 -0.6 43.5 42.6 28.4 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.6 26.5 -0.6 45.7 42.9 28.1 28.8 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.8 27.2 -0.6 44.7 42.3 28.6 28.9 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.5 28.1 27.0 -0.5 45.8 43.4 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 28.4 29.3 26.6 -0.7 41.7 39.6 28.8 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.2 28.9 27.7 -0.2 50.8 50.3 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 29.1 28.9 28.2 -1.2 23.9 29.5 29.4 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 29.2 30.0 27.1 -0.7 40.2 39.1 29.4 30.2 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.3 28.2 29.3 -0.1 52.0 50.5 27.5 28.0 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.8 25.7 -0.4 48.4 45.4 27.4 27.8 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.8 29.7 -0.1 52.5 51.0 27.9 28.6 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 22.9 23.4 23.6 -0.6 45.2 41.4 22.9 23.4 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.6 28.8 -0.7 41.3 41.7 28.6 29.4 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 28.7 28.3 29.1 -0.3 48.1 48.3 28.2 28.4 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 29.0 29.0 29.4 -0.1 54.1 51.9 28.0 28.8 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.4 27.5 -0.3 50.0 48.3 27.8 28.4 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.5 28.9 27.6 -1.0 35.1 35.3 28.8 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 28.2 28.7 26.5 -0.9 37.3 37.0 28.6 29.0 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.4 28.3 -0.8 40.2 39.2 28.1 29.1 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 29.2 29.3 27.8 -1.2 27.6 31.5 29.4 30.2 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.2 24.6 -0.5 48.6 44.6 22.6 23.2 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.1 28.8 29.7 -0.3 49.0 47.9 28.3 28.9 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------