***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.4 28.1 29.6 -0.7 35.8 43.2 28.0 28.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 26.8 28.5 30.3 0.0 47.2 50.1 28.0 28.7 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 27.3 28.1 30.0 -0.3 43.2 47.5 27.5 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 20.4 20.3 27.8 -1.3 32.6 37.1 20.3 22.0 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 27.8 28.1 27.9 -0.9 35.1 42.1 28.0 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.1 25.6 -1.2 36.7 38.0 26.9 28.2 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 26.6 28.2 30.0 -0.2 44.4 48.5 27.6 28.6 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 16.3 16.9 26.2 -0.7 39.6 44.4 16.6 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.7 28.2 -0.6 37.2 44.4 27.6 28.1 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.7 26.9 -0.6 39.1 45.0 27.5 28.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.5 28.3 27.6 -0.7 39.5 44.5 27.6 28.5 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.2 27.5 -0.7 40.8 44.6 27.0 27.9 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.6 26.9 -0.9 39.7 41.6 28.1 28.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 27.5 27.8 27.9 -0.2 43.7 49.0 27.4 28.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 28.4 28.1 28.3 -1.5 29.6 34.6 28.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.6 28.9 27.4 -0.9 38.8 41.4 28.5 29.8 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 26.1 27.8 29.8 0.1 48.7 50.8 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.7 26.1 -0.4 40.1 46.5 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 26.7 28.3 30.3 0.0 47.2 50.7 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 22.3 23.3 24.0 -0.6 42.5 45.2 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.6 27.6 29.1 -0.7 36.0 43.9 27.4 28.5 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.8 29.6 -0.1 48.0 49.4 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 27.0 27.9 29.9 0.0 46.7 50.7 27.6 28.0 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 27.0 27.7 27.9 -0.3 41.9 47.7 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 27.8 27.7 27.9 -1.1 33.5 39.3 27.7 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 27.5 28.4 27.1 -0.9 38.9 41.2 27.9 28.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 26.9 27.8 28.6 -0.8 35.0 41.7 27.8 28.4 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 28.3 28.5 28.1 -1.4 31.8 36.2 28.5 30.1 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 21.8 22.5 25.0 -0.4 40.8 46.6 22.2 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 26.8 28.1 30.3 -0.2 44.3 48.7 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------