***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 28.8 29.0 29.4 -0.1 52.0 51.9 27.2 28.3 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 28.7 28.7 29.7 0.1 55.5 54.7 27.4 28.3 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 28.9 29.0 29.8 0.3 58.9 56.3 27.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.2 28.0 -0.4 51.6 48.4 21.5 22.0 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 30.1 30.0 28.1 0.1 57.3 53.6 28.2 29.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.6 26.0 0.0 53.7 52.8 27.0 28.6 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 28.6 28.4 29.5 0.0 52.9 53.3 27.2 28.2 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 17.9 18.3 26.7 0.4 58.8 57.3 16.9 17.6 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 29.2 29.8 28.4 0.3 58.2 55.5 27.7 28.7 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 29.1 29.2 27.2 0.4 58.5 56.6 28.0 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 29.8 29.8 27.9 0.4 59.9 57.4 28.1 29.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 28.8 29.0 27.9 0.6 60.6 58.8 27.1 28.4 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.1 27.3 0.4 57.6 56.4 28.0 29.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 28.7 29.4 28.0 0.5 60.8 57.8 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.5 29.9 28.4 -0.7 46.7 44.8 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 31.0 30.9 27.7 0.3 58.2 55.7 29.1 30.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 28.4 27.9 29.4 0.1 54.8 54.4 26.9 27.9 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 28.3 28.2 26.4 0.5 57.7 57.7 26.9 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 28.6 28.3 29.8 0.3 57.9 56.1 27.0 28.1 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 24.2 24.1 24.5 0.4 58.3 56.7 22.8 23.9 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 29.1 29.1 29.1 0.1 56.2 54.1 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 28.6 28.2 29.1 0.0 54.0 52.9 27.1 28.0 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 28.3 29.4 29.6 0.4 60.5 57.9 27.5 27.8 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.3 29.0 28.0 0.5 59.1 58.0 27.0 27.7 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 29.5 29.3 27.9 -0.3 51.5 49.8 27.9 29.1 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.8 29.8 27.4 0.2 57.2 54.5 28.0 29.4 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 28.6 28.2 28.5 -0.2 50.7 51.0 26.9 28.2 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.7 30.5 28.2 -0.4 51.5 48.0 28.9 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 23.7 23.8 25.4 0.5 57.2 57.7 22.1 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 28.6 28.7 29.8 0.1 54.9 54.4 27.3 28.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------