***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 27.5 28.1 -1.2 34.5 33.2 27.2 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.4 28.3 28.5 -0.8 39.2 38.9 27.9 29.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 27.2 27.9 28.2 -1.0 35.2 36.1 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 20.2 20.5 25.6 -1.7 25.0 25.5 21.1 21.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 27.1 27.4 26.0 -1.7 25.1 26.3 28.4 29.1 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 26.1 26.3 22.9 -2.2 23.0 21.9 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 29.4 27.8 28.3 -0.9 36.2 36.9 27.7 29.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 15.1 15.0 23.4 -2.1 22.1 23.7 15.8 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.9 -1.5 27.6 28.7 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 26.7 26.8 24.7 -1.8 24.7 26.9 27.2 27.8 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 26.8 27.1 25.5 -1.8 24.1 25.9 27.8 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 26.1 26.2 24.6 -2.0 22.3 25.3 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 27.3 27.6 24.6 -2.0 23.0 24.7 28.0 28.6 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 26.8 27.9 26.6 -1.0 38.1 38.3 27.5 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 28.9 29.1 27.6 -1.6 27.7 28.6 29.3 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 27.9 28.4 25.3 -1.9 24.3 26.1 28.8 29.3 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 28.8 27.8 28.3 -0.7 39.4 39.4 27.1 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 25.7 26.3 23.7 -1.7 28.9 29.6 26.5 27.3 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 28.7 27.8 28.5 -0.8 40.3 39.5 27.4 28.4 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 21.0 21.5 21.2 -2.2 23.3 24.8 22.0 23.0 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.4 27.7 -1.5 29.3 29.4 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 29.3 27.7 28.0 -0.8 38.4 38.3 27.4 29.1 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.1 28.1 -0.8 41.5 39.5 27.2 28.8 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 26.3 26.9 26.1 -1.3 33.2 34.3 26.9 28.1 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 27.6 27.9 26.6 -1.5 29.5 29.3 27.9 28.9 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 26.7 26.4 23.9 -2.4 17.7 20.7 27.9 28.6 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.1 27.8 27.4 -1.2 33.8 32.8 27.6 28.8 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 28.6 28.6 26.4 -1.7 24.5 25.9 29.0 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 21.1 21.3 22.7 -1.8 28.2 28.7 21.6 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.8 28.5 -1.0 36.0 36.8 27.6 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------