***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.8 18.4 -0.5 41.2 39.8 15.6 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 16.1 15.9 18.8 -0.1 49.5 49.4 15.0 15.9 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.0 18.6 -0.2 48.2 46.7 17.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 12.6 12.8 16.3 -0.7 27.4 31.0 12.9 13.4 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.4 16.4 -0.4 40.6 40.7 14.1 14.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.0 14.8 -0.4 39.7 39.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.1 18.8 -0.2 47.4 46.1 15.6 16.2 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.8 14.5 -0.4 41.5 40.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.5 16.7 -0.3 42.2 42.2 15.3 15.6 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.3 15.1 -0.3 41.6 42.1 15.1 15.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.2 16.1 -0.2 44.0 44.7 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.3 15.5 -0.3 44.0 42.8 12.9 13.5 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.4 15.4 -0.2 46.2 46.5 14.0 14.5 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.2 16.8 -0.2 46.0 46.9 15.6 16.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 16.1 16.1 17.2 -0.9 26.1 27.8 16.4 16.7 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.5 16.0 -0.2 44.6 44.6 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.8 16.6 18.5 0.1 51.1 52.7 16.0 16.6 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.2 13.6 14.3 -0.3 43.2 43.4 13.2 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 16.0 15.8 18.7 -0.1 50.1 50.2 15.4 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.7 12.6 -0.4 40.8 41.3 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.3 17.7 -0.4 41.7 41.1 15.1 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.4 18.3 -0.1 48.4 49.0 15.0 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.2 18.4 -0.1 47.7 49.7 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.1 16.0 16.5 -0.2 47.1 47.0 15.2 16.0 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.2 16.8 -0.6 34.3 34.8 15.1 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.4 15.0 -0.4 39.1 39.6 14.2 14.4 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.6 17.6 -0.5 39.7 38.2 15.1 15.9 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.8 14.0 16.9 -0.7 29.9 31.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.3 12.8 13.8 -0.3 43.7 44.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.2 18.9 -0.2 47.1 46.6 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------