***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 15.2 15.8 18.7 -0.4 41.0 45.2 15.5 16.6 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 14.6 16.4 19.1 0.0 52.3 50.4 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 17.1 18.2 18.9 -0.2 45.8 48.5 17.3 18.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.4 12.3 16.5 -0.8 31.3 37.1 12.4 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 13.7 14.4 16.4 -0.5 36.3 42.3 13.9 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.8 13.5 14.9 -0.6 37.7 40.5 13.3 13.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.6 19.1 -0.2 49.3 48.9 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.0 14.8 -0.3 45.3 47.4 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.7 15.8 16.7 -0.4 38.0 44.6 15.7 16.2 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.7 15.2 -0.4 42.4 46.1 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 14.3 15.2 16.3 -0.3 42.2 46.0 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.8 15.9 -0.3 45.0 47.6 13.2 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.6 15.4 -0.4 38.5 43.8 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.5 16.6 16.9 -0.2 43.5 47.4 16.1 17.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 15.8 15.8 17.1 -1.0 27.0 34.5 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 15.3 16.2 16.1 -0.4 38.5 43.1 16.1 16.4 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.5 17.2 18.6 0.0 53.7 52.1 16.1 17.1 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.3 14.5 -0.3 42.3 46.8 13.8 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 14.7 16.5 19.1 0.0 52.5 51.0 15.9 16.4 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.2 13.0 -0.3 43.3 46.6 9.0 10.5 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.4 17.8 -0.4 38.8 44.6 15.1 15.8 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.0 18.4 -0.1 49.5 49.4 15.3 16.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.6 18.7 0.0 49.1 50.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.5 16.7 -0.2 43.2 47.8 15.9 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.5 16.8 -0.7 35.3 40.4 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.6 15.3 -0.6 39.3 42.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 14.5 15.5 17.7 -0.5 38.9 43.1 15.2 15.9 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 13.9 13.9 17.0 -0.9 31.6 36.4 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.0 14.0 -0.3 43.3 47.4 12.3 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 14.6 16.4 19.2 -0.1 49.2 49.0 15.9 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------