***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.7 18.8 -0.4 44.8 46.1 14.7 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.1 19.3 0.0 53.0 52.0 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.7 19.0 -0.2 47.4 49.3 16.9 18.2 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.9 16.6 -0.8 34.8 37.7 12.7 14.1 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.4 16.6 -0.5 38.3 42.7 13.7 14.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.2 -0.5 40.9 42.6 12.6 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.1 19.2 -0.1 47.0 50.4 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.6 15.1 -0.3 44.2 46.8 8.1 9.1 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.2 16.9 -0.3 38.0 45.5 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.5 15.4 -0.4 41.2 45.8 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.0 16.5 -0.3 43.4 46.4 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.3 16.1 -0.2 45.4 47.3 12.5 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.1 15.6 -0.3 41.7 44.9 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.1 17.1 -0.2 48.1 49.1 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 16.1 16.1 17.2 -1.0 33.3 35.5 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.5 16.3 -0.4 41.4 44.4 15.2 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.8 16.9 18.9 0.2 55.5 54.7 15.7 16.5 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.9 14.7 -0.3 43.6 46.3 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 15.1 15.9 19.2 0.0 53.3 52.5 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.9 13.3 -0.3 43.5 46.9 9.3 10.5 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.2 18.0 -0.3 40.5 45.9 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.3 18.7 0.0 49.2 52.5 14.7 15.3 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.6 18.8 0.0 50.6 51.8 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.8 16.8 -0.2 47.3 48.2 15.5 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.6 14.9 16.9 -0.6 38.6 41.6 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.2 15.5 -0.4 40.5 44.2 14.1 14.6 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.0 17.8 -0.4 42.7 44.5 14.2 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.1 17.1 -0.9 35.5 37.5 14.0 14.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.1 14.2 -0.3 45.7 47.2 12.5 13.4 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.8 19.3 -0.1 49.7 50.2 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------