***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 16.3 16.2 18.8 0.0 52.6 52.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 16.2 16.3 19.1 0.1 58.0 56.0 14.9 16.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 18.0 18.6 18.9 0.3 59.8 57.8 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.4 17.0 -0.1 50.1 49.6 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.8 16.9 0.2 59.3 55.0 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.3 15.4 0.1 54.3 52.8 12.2 13.2 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.5 19.1 0.1 55.8 54.5 15.1 16.3 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.8 15.0 0.2 55.5 55.2 8.0 8.6 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.1 17.1 0.2 61.2 56.2 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.9 15.5 0.2 57.6 56.1 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.5 16.6 0.4 58.9 58.3 14.0 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.6 16.1 0.3 57.4 56.0 12.4 13.4 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.7 15.8 0.2 56.3 55.3 13.4 14.6 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.1 16.9 17.2 0.4 63.1 59.4 15.3 16.0 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.4 17.6 -0.3 43.1 45.5 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.9 16.5 0.3 58.2 56.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 16.7 17.2 18.8 0.3 59.1 57.1 15.7 16.4 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.6 14.8 0.3 60.0 57.6 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 16.2 16.3 19.0 0.2 59.5 57.8 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 13.3 0.2 60.6 56.0 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.7 16.0 18.1 0.1 58.6 54.9 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.9 15.8 18.5 0.1 54.6 55.1 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.6 18.7 0.3 62.0 59.4 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.4 16.9 0.3 62.1 59.2 14.9 15.8 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.2 17.2 -0.1 51.9 49.7 14.7 15.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.3 15.6 0.0 54.1 51.2 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.9 18.0 -0.1 52.7 51.1 14.6 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.4 17.4 -0.1 48.6 49.4 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.6 14.4 0.3 62.8 58.5 11.7 12.6 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 16.5 16.5 19.1 0.1 56.5 55.4 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------