***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 14.2 14.5 17.4 -1.1 30.2 32.3 14.6 15.3 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 15.8 15.0 17.8 -0.5 40.4 40.9 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.8 17.1 17.6 -0.7 38.7 37.7 16.7 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.5 15.1 -1.1 31.9 31.3 11.7 13.0 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.2 15.7 -0.7 38.1 38.1 13.0 13.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.1 12.4 13.7 -0.7 39.5 38.7 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.2 17.8 -0.8 37.5 36.3 15.1 15.6 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.4 7.7 12.9 -1.2 29.6 29.8 7.8 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.3 14.7 16.0 -0.8 38.0 37.3 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.4 14.1 -0.8 34.4 35.5 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.2 15.1 -0.7 37.5 36.6 14.0 14.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.4 13.9 -1.0 35.8 33.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 13.9 13.6 14.9 -0.1 47.3 48.2 13.2 13.7 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.2 15.9 -0.6 35.8 38.0 15.2 15.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 15.6 15.5 16.7 -1.2 29.3 30.0 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.9 14.7 15.3 -0.4 41.4 42.4 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 16.6 16.3 17.7 -0.2 47.7 46.1 15.6 16.4 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.1 -0.8 34.2 34.4 12.5 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.3 17.7 -0.5 39.5 40.1 14.7 15.5 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.5 8.5 10.9 -1.1 27.9 29.5 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.1 14.3 17.1 -0.9 37.2 36.3 14.2 14.8 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.1 14.6 17.6 -0.5 39.2 40.5 14.4 14.9 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.5 14.5 17.4 -0.6 37.9 38.2 14.1 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.5 14.9 15.7 -0.6 39.0 39.2 14.8 15.1 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.7 13.9 16.4 -1.0 33.8 33.1 13.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.3 13.5 13.7 -0.7 40.5 38.2 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.4 16.9 -1.0 32.0 33.4 14.4 15.4 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.9 -1.0 33.0 32.8 13.2 14.0 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.7 -0.8 33.1 34.4 11.6 12.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.6 17.8 -0.8 37.4 36.3 15.2 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------