***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 25.1 30.3 24.7 58.7 34.2 31.1 29.8 35.0 53.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 25.8 38.0 23.4 61.0 37.0 33.1 32.2 51.3 63.8 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 26.1 28.4 23.5 52.9 30.8 29.0 30.4 36.6 50.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 38.7 43.1 20.6 47.5 30.8 27.8 44.9 53.1 66.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 22.5 26.5 19.6 46.7 28.2 26.6 27.1 41.8 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 28.7 34.7 25.2 53.3 26.5 26.9 42.5 60.2 69.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 26.0 28.0 23.2 59.7 37.7 32.8 26.3 39.1 52.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 39.5 36.7 25.0 50.6 27.3 26.7 44.7 68.5 100.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 26.8 28.6 21.9 48.0 29.2 26.5 29.1 43.6 54.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 31.0 32.5 26.3 49.0 26.4 25.5 38.6 53.7 73.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 22.8 23.6 18.1 45.5 27.7 25.2 27.5 39.2 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 28.0 30.8 18.2 47.9 29.9 27.2 34.4 48.4 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 17.0 22.9 18.5 47.6 29.4 26.7 23.0 38.7 48.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 28.7 37.0 30.7 54.7 30.0 28.1 38.2 57.9 79.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 18.7 21.9 16.6 47.7 33.7 30.7 20.8 25.6 43.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 17.7 22.0 18.3 47.5 28.5 26.3 23.5 35.0 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 30.8 35.8 23.8 61.3 37.2 33.2 34.8 49.1 67.6 29 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 31.2 35.1 30.9 50.0 25.3 25.2 41.5 55.0 70.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 24.5 37.8 24.0 60.4 36.1 32.5 37.4 50.8 70.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 27.7 31.1 33.1 54.0 26.1 26.4 33.5 48.7 64.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 26.6 30.8 22.2 50.3 29.1 28.1 32.4 38.5 50.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 35.0 46.4 25.9 64.0 37.6 34.3 43.3 54.1 60.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 27.4 32.6 24.5 57.4 33.6 30.6 32.2 44.0 59.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 29.5 39.6 27.4 50.1 26.3 26.2 41.3 53.9 76.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 32.2 32.4 26.6 58.7 35.2 31.7 30.8 47.0 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 17.1 24.7 14.9 46.8 30.1 26.4 26.1 36.6 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 28.9 30.8 27.1 61.2 36.1 32.4 26.2 40.5 63.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 21.7 25.1 19.5 48.5 31.8 29.0 25.2 29.3 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 44.6 52.5 33.2 52.4 26.1 25.7 61.3 75.3 94.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 25.7 26.4 23.6 59.4 34.7 32.4 26.0 41.2 48.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------