***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.1 13.1 7.7 87.9 68.3 42.4 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 16.8 5.4 66.7 61.5 41.8 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.2 10.1 6.1 66.7 61.1 41.5 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.5 15.4 5.1 60.9 59.8 42.1 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.1 12.5 4.8 61.4 61.1 41.5 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.4 4.7 47.8 51.4 36.3 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.9 6.1 76.4 65.4 44.8 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.4 16.9 5.0 53.3 53.2 39.0 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.4 5.4 64.5 60.2 41.7 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.2 5.9 58.2 55.0 40.3 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.3 12.0 3.8 54.6 58.5 42.8 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 12.1 3.6 50.7 58.2 40.2 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.7 5.3 3.6 44.2 56.5 36.7 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.9 7.2 62.8 55.4 41.3 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.5 15.6 4.6 70.5 64.6 44.4 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.9 3.7 48.8 57.9 38.8 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.2 23.6 6.2 78.4 64.0 45.3 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.7 10.1 6.5 53.3 49.2 39.1 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 17.3 5.3 64.5 60.7 41.4 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.9 9.5 6.4 50.2 45.0 36.4 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.9 5.9 67.8 62.4 43.1 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 11.5 6.4 73.8 61.8 43.8 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.1 10.4 5.5 64.9 60.9 42.1 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.1 14.5 6.1 58.3 54.9 40.7 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.1 17.1 7.8 86.2 67.6 42.8 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 1.9 6.5 2.6 40.1 55.3 36.4 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.0 16.0 8.2 91.0 68.5 42.6 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.5 7.9 4.7 59.1 59.8 42.6 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.3 11.9 6.8 52.8 48.1 38.1 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.0 9.4 5.7 68.1 61.6 42.1 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------