***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 9.3 6.5 71.9 64.2 46.6 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.3 7.1 83.6 65.2 51.2 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.0 8.1 7.2 71.5 64.0 45.3 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 1.7 14.7 6.6 70.3 67.7 45.5 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.6 13.4 6.5 71.5 67.7 44.1 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.7 8.9 8.0 79.8 64.9 44.8 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.7 6.0 6.9 82.8 66.3 52.0 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.3 18.8 8.3 76.9 63.2 47.0 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.4 10.2 7.4 73.6 67.0 45.8 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.5 9.0 76.0 64.8 47.1 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.4 14.9 6.0 74.6 66.2 47.1 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.4 6.5 5.8 69.8 63.7 47.4 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 15.1 6.5 75.4 66.2 45.8 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.2 10.3 83.5 62.4 48.4 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.3 8.1 4.4 61.8 67.9 45.7 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.2 11.7 6.0 74.6 67.6 47.0 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.1 9.2 7.4 86.9 67.2 53.7 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 14.8 10.2 69.7 60.1 45.1 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.9 16.5 7.3 82.6 65.0 50.4 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.9 12.9 10.9 72.6 56.4 42.9 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.8 21.5 7.1 74.3 68.0 47.1 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.9 7.5 80.6 66.0 51.8 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.2 7.8 83.8 64.0 49.5 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.1 9.1 73.3 61.9 46.5 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.6 16.5 7.6 79.7 68.3 47.3 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.0 13.7 5.1 78.8 68.3 46.2 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 8.0 7.2 77.8 66.2 46.9 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.9 10.5 5.9 69.0 69.3 46.3 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.8 17.0 10.8 71.3 57.7 44.2 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.7 6.8 75.8 63.6 49.1 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------