***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.9 7.9 7.8 67.4 54.3 42.8 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.1 5.4 8.6 87.5 63.5 44.2 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.0 8.0 63.2 54.3 41.9 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.3 6.5 54.6 52.8 41.7 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.6 5.9 49.3 50.7 38.4 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.2 9.2 70.8 54.9 42.0 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.1 13.5 7.7 76.6 58.9 42.8 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.2 8.2 67.3 54.3 42.8 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 3.0 6.6 49.9 49.1 39.1 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.1 11.9 8.1 59.8 51.3 41.6 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.2 6.1 54.4 50.0 38.3 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.9 6.0 62.0 54.2 41.8 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.4 6.3 61.6 56.0 40.8 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 11.8 10.6 68.4 54.8 44.0 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.9 3.6 5.6 55.7 54.2 40.8 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.9 6.2 60.3 54.3 40.8 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.0 9.7 7.6 75.9 58.0 42.9 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 8.7 10.0 62.9 50.0 42.0 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.1 16.8 8.9 84.7 62.8 45.5 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.6 11.4 74.7 52.5 43.6 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.7 6.8 52.5 50.0 39.8 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.5 14.5 9.1 87.2 62.8 45.4 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.6 9.1 8.5 71.4 57.7 43.8 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.4 9.3 60.4 52.1 41.9 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.8 6.5 8.2 61.1 52.7 40.8 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.6 5.3 54.8 48.5 37.1 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.2 8.7 67.9 53.7 42.2 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.3 8.9 6.6 61.8 56.2 42.7 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 14.0 11.5 69.4 50.9 42.2 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.6 14.7 8.9 86.5 63.3 45.6 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------