***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 3.7 4.1 2.8 21.9 34.2 22.6 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.8 2.3 19.2 32.5 20.5 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 2.1 4.3 2.3 18.2 32.0 21.8 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.4 17.7 30.8 22.1 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 3.6 5.9 2.4 18.3 34.5 22.4 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 1.1 0.9 3.3 22.9 29.1 22.3 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 2.3 3.5 2.5 19.9 32.8 21.1 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 4.3 6.7 3.5 21.1 30.2 22.3 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 2.3 4.1 2.5 17.9 33.4 21.5 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 2.8 5.2 3.3 18.5 30.5 21.0 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 1.1 2.2 2.2 16.1 33.1 21.3 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 3.0 0.9 2.7 21.7 33.4 23.2 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 0.9 0.9 2.2 18.4 33.0 22.5 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 2.4 1.8 2.7 16.2 26.9 20.0 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.3 1.7 1.9 17.8 37.0 24.3 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 0.7 1.2 2.4 18.9 32.5 21.9 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 2.6 3.8 2.6 21.1 33.0 21.9 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 4.0 4.5 4.3 22.3 29.0 21.0 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 3.1 3.4 2.5 20.4 32.9 20.8 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 3.6 4.0 4.4 23.9 29.6 22.5 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 2.6 5.8 2.5 18.9 33.1 21.3 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 2.7 4.6 2.8 23.5 34.8 21.5 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.2 3.7 2.7 20.8 32.5 22.2 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 2.7 4.1 2.9 17.4 28.7 20.4 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.4 5.9 3.1 22.8 36.1 24.3 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.9 20.5 36.1 25.5 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.1 23.1 34.5 23.0 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 1.6 2.6 2.3 17.1 31.4 21.8 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 6.7 6.8 4.0 21.6 28.6 20.8 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 2.5 4.0 2.2 18.3 33.3 20.4 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------