***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 29.5 29.5 30.1 0.0 51.5 51.2 28.5 29.4 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.3 29.8 -0.5 41.9 43.0 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.1 30.4 -0.1 53.0 50.8 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.9 23.1 28.4 0.7 66.8 62.1 21.7 22.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.0 29.5 28.4 -0.2 48.0 49.0 28.9 29.6 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.5 26.0 0.2 53.2 54.5 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.7 30.0 -0.1 49.0 48.9 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.3 26.4 -0.2 47.8 48.5 16.9 17.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.2 28.9 0.0 52.9 52.1 28.5 29.0 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.1 27.3 0.2 56.3 54.2 28.0 29.0 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.9 28.4 -0.3 44.4 46.6 28.5 29.0 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.0 27.8 -0.4 41.9 45.0 27.9 28.2 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.6 28.9 27.3 -0.8 37.6 39.6 28.7 29.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.1 28.5 0.2 57.1 55.4 27.8 28.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.6 30.8 30.7 0.8 66.8 62.3 29.5 30.4 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.7 30.2 28.0 -0.3 44.7 46.5 29.3 30.4 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.9 29.4 -0.5 41.4 42.8 27.5 28.1 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.0 26.4 0.2 56.9 54.9 27.4 27.8 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.4 30.0 -0.4 42.9 44.7 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.6 23.7 -0.2 48.7 48.5 23.0 23.7 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.7 29.5 29.6 0.0 52.7 51.0 28.5 29.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.4 29.8 0.0 48.6 50.1 28.0 28.4 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.8 30.3 0.0 51.3 51.1 28.1 28.7 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.8 28.4 0.2 57.5 55.1 27.8 28.4 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.4 28.4 -0.2 47.7 47.9 29.0 29.6 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.9 27.5 -0.5 43.0 44.0 28.6 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.8 29.1 -0.2 48.0 48.6 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.4 30.8 29.3 0.7 66.8 61.9 29.4 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.3 25.2 -0.1 52.9 51.1 22.4 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.0 30.0 -0.3 46.5 46.4 28.2 29.1 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------