***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 29.9 30.6 31.6 0.8 61.5 56.7 28.0 29.1 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.4 31.2 0.5 55.5 53.1 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.6 32.0 0.9 62.2 57.8 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.3 24.3 30.2 1.5 69.8 62.5 20.8 22.2 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.2 30.1 29.9 0.8 59.3 56.4 28.5 29.4 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 29.8 30.1 27.5 1.1 67.4 59.5 27.0 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.5 31.3 0.7 59.6 55.7 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.2 28.4 0.9 61.8 57.6 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.8 30.1 1.0 60.9 58.0 28.0 28.6 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.7 29.1 1.2 64.5 59.8 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 27.8 29.0 29.8 0.6 57.6 55.1 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.3 29.0 29.8 0.6 57.6 54.7 27.3 28.5 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 28.0 29.8 28.6 0.3 54.9 52.7 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.1 30.0 29.6 1.0 63.4 58.5 27.6 28.3 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.5 31.8 31.6 1.6 72.1 64.0 29.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.1 30.8 29.4 0.7 59.6 55.8 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.6 28.9 30.8 0.4 54.8 52.7 27.7 28.3 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.2 29.0 28.3 1.3 67.6 61.0 26.6 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.7 31.5 0.5 56.2 53.8 27.5 28.6 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 22.6 25.0 25.6 1.0 64.5 58.6 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.7 31.0 0.9 61.2 57.2 27.8 29.1 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.6 31.0 0.6 58.5 54.9 28.0 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.9 31.6 0.8 59.3 55.9 27.7 28.3 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.8 29.4 29.8 1.2 65.4 59.8 27.3 28.1 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.1 30.4 29.8 0.8 60.6 56.6 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 28.0 30.2 29.6 0.6 59.7 55.7 28.0 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.4 29.9 30.5 0.7 60.5 56.1 28.0 28.7 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.7 31.8 30.7 1.6 71.2 63.3 29.1 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.8 24.4 27.1 1.1 66.2 59.2 22.4 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.1 31.5 0.6 58.1 55.1 27.8 28.8 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------