***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.4 31.2 0.5 56.6 56.1 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.9 30.8 0.2 54.6 52.9 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.4 31.5 0.6 59.3 56.8 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 24.2 24.2 29.9 1.3 67.1 63.9 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 30.5 30.7 29.5 0.6 56.8 56.8 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.4 27.0 0.9 63.0 61.0 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.2 31.0 0.5 58.7 55.9 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.7 17.9 27.8 0.6 57.4 56.7 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.9 30.4 29.7 0.7 59.1 58.2 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.5 28.5 0.9 61.2 59.6 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.9 29.9 29.3 0.4 55.7 55.5 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.7 29.2 0.3 52.5 54.3 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.2 29.6 28.0 0.1 48.0 52.2 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.8 29.1 0.6 58.4 56.6 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.8 32.4 31.4 1.5 70.6 65.7 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.8 30.6 28.9 0.5 54.9 56.1 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.9 30.5 0.2 53.7 52.5 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.4 27.7 0.9 62.2 59.7 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.4 31.0 0.2 54.5 53.0 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.6 24.8 0.5 57.9 56.2 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.6 30.5 0.6 57.4 57.3 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 30.3 30.3 30.7 0.4 56.0 54.3 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.2 31.2 0.4 55.6 54.5 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.7 29.3 0.8 61.2 58.6 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.9 31.0 29.3 0.6 57.6 56.6 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.8 29.1 0.5 53.6 55.8 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.9 30.1 0.5 56.4 55.8 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 31.6 32.1 30.4 1.4 68.5 64.6 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.6 26.4 0.7 59.3 57.4 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.9 31.1 0.4 56.5 54.4 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------