***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 27.0 27.2 27.4 -1.6 27.5 30.2 27.4 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 27.2 27.1 26.9 -2.4 20.6 23.3 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 27.2 27.1 27.3 -2.0 26.6 28.0 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.2 25.0 -0.9 38.1 39.9 21.0 21.5 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 27.2 27.8 25.4 -2.0 27.7 28.3 28.1 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 26.4 26.1 23.0 -1.7 28.2 29.8 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 27.0 27.3 27.1 -1.9 24.7 27.1 27.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 15.2 15.0 22.9 -2.3 25.2 26.4 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 27.1 27.3 26.4 -1.8 30.4 30.4 27.4 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 26.7 27.1 24.2 -1.8 31.3 31.3 27.3 27.9 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 26.6 27.2 25.7 -2.2 26.6 27.5 27.7 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 25.8 26.2 24.3 -2.4 23.2 25.1 27.0 27.7 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 26.6 26.1 24.9 -2.8 17.4 20.2 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.3 26.2 -1.4 35.4 35.5 27.2 28.3 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.1 28.4 -1.1 38.3 38.7 29.0 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 27.7 27.8 25.2 -2.3 24.1 25.3 28.7 29.5 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 26.2 25.6 26.5 -2.4 18.1 22.3 26.9 28.0 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 25.7 25.9 23.0 -1.9 28.1 30.4 26.6 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 26.7 26.5 27.1 -2.2 23.4 25.4 27.5 28.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 21.2 21.0 20.6 -2.3 22.0 25.8 22.0 22.9 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 27.0 27.1 27.1 -1.9 28.1 29.2 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 26.8 27.5 27.2 -1.5 29.6 31.5 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.2 27.7 -1.5 33.1 33.4 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 26.4 26.5 25.8 -1.7 31.1 31.9 26.8 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 27.4 27.4 25.8 -2.2 21.7 25.2 27.9 28.7 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 26.6 26.5 23.7 -2.7 20.7 22.7 27.7 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 26.7 26.7 26.4 -1.9 23.5 26.8 27.0 28.0 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.2 29.2 26.4 -1.1 37.6 38.3 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 21.2 20.8 22.0 -2.1 24.2 27.5 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 26.9 26.7 27.1 -2.1 23.8 25.9 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------