***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 15.0 14.7 18.1 -1.1 17.1 24.5 15.6 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 14.5 14.1 17.8 -1.2 16.2 23.0 15.0 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 16.9 16.7 18.4 -1.0 20.2 26.8 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 12.5 12.8 16.1 -0.5 30.1 36.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 13.3 13.0 15.9 -1.0 19.3 24.8 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.8 14.1 -0.5 30.3 34.9 12.8 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 15.2 15.0 18.1 -1.0 21.4 27.1 15.5 16.2 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 8.2 8.1 13.6 -0.9 20.3 26.4 8.6 8.9 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 14.5 14.4 16.0 -1.0 19.9 25.5 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 14.7 14.6 14.4 -0.8 22.4 28.1 15.1 15.5 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 14.2 14.0 15.7 -1.0 20.3 24.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 12.5 12.3 14.7 -1.0 21.6 26.4 12.9 13.3 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 13.6 13.4 14.0 -1.1 16.2 19.8 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 15.4 15.2 16.0 -0.8 24.1 29.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 16.1 16.5 18.2 -0.3 38.4 40.9 16.4 16.7 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 15.0 14.8 15.0 -1.0 20.4 24.5 15.3 16.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 15.8 15.5 17.7 -1.1 17.3 24.3 15.9 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 12.8 12.6 13.6 -0.8 21.3 27.5 13.1 13.9 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 15.0 14.7 18.0 -1.1 18.6 25.0 15.3 15.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 8.8 8.6 11.3 -0.9 17.1 23.1 9.3 9.9 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 14.3 14.1 17.3 -1.0 18.0 25.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 14.6 14.4 18.0 -0.8 25.2 31.4 15.0 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 14.5 14.7 18.2 -0.8 25.6 31.1 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 15.1 14.9 15.8 -0.8 21.3 28.1 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 14.4 14.2 16.6 -1.2 16.0 21.4 15.0 15.4 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 13.8 13.8 13.7 -0.9 19.9 25.2 14.2 14.4 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 14.2 13.8 17.2 -1.2 15.5 22.1 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.7 14.3 16.8 -0.4 36.0 39.6 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 12.3 12.1 12.9 -0.8 19.7 26.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 15.2 15.0 18.2 -1.1 19.1 25.0 15.5 16.2 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------