***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 15.3 16.3 19.4 -0.2 48.5 47.6 15.6 16.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 15.1 16.3 19.1 -0.2 46.8 46.8 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 16.9 18.4 19.8 -0.1 50.6 48.7 17.1 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.4 13.6 17.4 0.3 53.0 53.1 12.9 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 13.4 14.8 16.9 -0.2 43.8 46.8 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 12.7 13.6 15.4 0.2 53.1 52.0 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 15.5 16.5 19.3 -0.1 48.2 48.8 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.5 9.1 14.7 -0.3 43.7 45.5 8.4 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 14.7 16.2 16.9 -0.2 46.8 47.2 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 14.7 15.9 15.4 -0.2 46.5 47.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 14.3 15.0 16.5 -0.4 41.4 45.0 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 12.5 13.5 15.6 -0.4 43.5 44.9 13.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.7 14.7 -0.3 42.0 44.7 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 15.1 17.0 16.9 0.0 50.1 48.6 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 16.0 17.2 19.1 0.5 60.2 55.5 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.9 15.8 -0.2 46.1 46.8 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.6 16.7 18.8 -0.2 45.4 46.8 15.8 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.6 14.4 -0.1 49.5 48.5 13.5 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 15.0 16.5 19.2 -0.2 47.6 47.1 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 9.4 9.8 12.0 -0.3 42.5 45.4 9.3 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 14.5 15.9 18.4 -0.2 47.5 47.1 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 14.6 16.0 18.9 0.0 49.5 48.5 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 14.2 16.0 19.3 -0.1 48.8 48.6 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 15.1 16.7 16.8 0.0 51.0 49.3 16.0 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 14.6 15.9 17.7 -0.3 45.4 46.4 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 13.9 14.6 14.7 -0.2 44.5 46.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 14.9 16.1 18.5 -0.2 47.2 47.3 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 13.7 15.1 17.9 0.4 59.6 55.2 14.4 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.2 13.3 13.9 -0.1 47.5 47.6 12.5 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 15.3 16.6 19.5 -0.2 47.7 47.9 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------