***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 19.1 -0.3 47.6 46.5 14.8 15.2 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.6 19.0 -0.4 45.1 45.2 15.0 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.4 19.6 -0.2 49.0 48.3 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.9 17.2 0.2 56.1 54.3 12.5 13.4 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 13.3 14.4 16.7 -0.3 46.3 46.0 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.1 15.2 0.2 58.1 54.0 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.1 19.3 -0.2 48.3 47.9 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.9 8.8 14.5 -0.4 44.8 44.8 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.3 16.7 -0.3 48.1 46.9 14.9 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.6 15.3 -0.2 48.0 46.8 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 14.1 15.0 16.3 -0.5 43.4 43.8 14.7 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.3 15.4 -0.5 41.9 43.5 12.6 13.6 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 13.3 14.2 14.4 -0.4 40.0 42.8 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.1 16.8 -0.2 48.9 48.0 15.4 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.8 18.9 0.4 60.8 56.6 16.1 17.5 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 14.8 15.8 15.6 -0.3 46.7 46.3 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.3 18.8 -0.3 46.5 46.0 16.0 16.4 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.0 14.3 -0.2 47.7 47.3 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.7 19.1 -0.4 46.1 45.6 14.7 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.3 11.8 -0.4 42.3 44.8 9.5 10.4 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.5 18.2 -0.3 48.0 47.5 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.6 18.9 -0.2 48.5 47.9 14.4 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.1 19.1 -0.2 49.0 47.6 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.1 16.6 -0.1 49.5 47.9 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.5 -0.3 46.5 45.9 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.5 14.5 -0.2 48.1 46.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.0 18.3 -0.3 46.6 46.0 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.2 17.7 0.4 60.2 56.7 14.4 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.9 13.7 -0.3 44.5 46.4 12.4 13.3 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.6 19.3 -0.3 47.3 46.5 15.1 15.7 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------