***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 14.7 15.3 18.4 -0.9 31.4 35.1 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 14.1 14.6 18.1 -1.0 28.4 33.0 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 16.6 16.7 18.8 -0.7 33.4 37.2 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.3 13.3 16.5 -0.3 42.5 45.4 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.4 16.5 -0.7 29.8 36.5 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.7 14.3 -0.4 42.5 42.6 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 15.0 15.1 18.4 -0.8 32.7 35.7 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.0 13.9 -0.7 29.5 36.5 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.5 16.5 -0.7 29.6 35.9 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.4 14.9 -0.6 31.9 38.3 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.8 16.1 -0.8 26.4 34.1 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 12.0 12.3 15.1 -0.7 31.4 37.1 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 12.7 13.2 14.4 -1.1 24.5 27.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.2 16.4 -0.5 36.8 39.8 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.8 16.5 18.6 -0.2 45.5 45.6 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.3 14.6 15.5 -0.8 30.2 34.1 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 15.4 15.5 18.0 -0.9 30.4 34.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.6 12.8 14.1 -0.5 33.7 38.9 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 14.7 14.8 18.3 -0.9 31.0 34.8 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.5 8.7 11.9 -0.7 30.9 36.6 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.3 17.7 -0.8 30.2 35.2 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 14.1 14.8 18.4 -0.6 36.5 40.2 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 14.2 14.4 18.6 -0.6 38.9 40.7 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.8 16.3 -0.5 34.5 39.2 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 13.6 14.1 17.0 -1.1 25.9 32.0 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.4 14.1 -0.7 32.2 35.4 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 13.7 13.9 17.6 -1.1 26.6 32.5 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.9 17.1 -0.2 45.8 46.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 11.6 11.9 13.3 -0.6 31.7 37.3 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 14.9 14.8 18.5 -1.0 30.3 34.2 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------