***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 13.8 13.2 15.3 -3.0 8.7 9.6 14.4 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 13.6 12.9 15.2 -3.0 7.7 9.4 14.3 15.2 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 15.6 15.4 15.6 -2.9 7.8 9.1 16.4 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 11.1 10.8 13.3 -2.4 11.5 14.0 11.6 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 12.3 11.8 13.7 -2.7 9.4 10.1 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 11.4 11.1 11.5 -2.1 11.9 14.8 12.0 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 14.1 13.8 15.4 -2.8 9.3 10.7 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 6.6 6.4 11.3 -2.3 12.7 14.1 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 13.8 13.6 14.0 -2.7 9.8 10.5 14.2 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 13.7 13.6 12.3 -2.3 12.6 13.4 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 13.5 13.2 13.8 -2.4 12.3 13.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 11.5 11.3 12.6 -2.3 13.6 15.6 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 97 3 0 100 12.4 12.2 12.5 -2.7 8.3 10.3 13.5 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 14.5 14.3 13.9 -2.3 12.0 12.4 14.9 15.8 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 15.1 14.8 16.1 -2.0 15.5 18.2 15.7 16.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 13.7 13.3 13.2 -2.6 9.6 11.0 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 14.5 14.3 15.1 -2.8 8.5 10.4 15.5 16.3 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 12.1 11.7 11.4 -2.4 11.0 11.5 12.8 13.3 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 14.1 13.2 15.4 -2.9 8.5 10.2 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 7.5 7.3 9.5 -2.4 10.5 11.7 8.8 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 13.3 13.2 15.0 -2.7 9.2 9.5 14.0 14.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 13.9 13.5 15.8 -2.4 11.3 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 13.2 12.7 15.8 -2.4 12.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 14.3 13.6 13.7 -2.6 8.4 9.8 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 13.4 12.0 14.2 -3.2 6.2 8.5 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 12.7 12.0 11.4 -2.5 10.1 11.4 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 12.8 12.5 14.6 -3.2 7.0 8.6 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 12.3 12.1 14.3 -2.2 13.3 15.3 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 11.0 10.8 10.8 -2.3 11.1 12.1 11.6 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 14.5 13.6 15.5 -2.9 8.8 9.8 14.9 15.6 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------