***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 26.1 34.5 21.7 75.3 47.3 40.4 29.8 35.0 53.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 28.1 45.0 24.1 75.5 46.0 39.6 32.2 51.3 63.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 26.7 35.7 22.2 73.2 43.8 38.8 30.4 36.6 50.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 40.6 48.3 20.7 63.2 43.3 34.7 44.9 53.1 66.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 25.6 38.2 23.2 68.8 44.7 35.5 27.1 41.8 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 36.1 60.2 29.2 73.3 49.9 40.2 42.5 60.2 69.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 25.8 35.8 25.3 74.6 42.5 39.4 26.3 39.1 52.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 46.2 60.2 30.1 79.1 43.1 39.8 44.7 68.5 100.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 28.6 43.1 24.9 73.0 48.9 36.9 29.1 43.6 54.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 35.0 48.7 31.3 77.3 45.0 38.1 38.6 53.7 73.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 25.6 35.9 21.0 77.7 46.9 37.2 27.5 39.2 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 33.2 45.0 20.2 74.8 44.7 39.4 34.4 48.4 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 23.3 38.5 21.4 70.4 49.2 37.9 23.0 38.7 48.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 31.6 54.7 32.5 76.9 44.4 39.2 38.2 57.9 79.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.4 25.4 18.2 65.0 47.3 36.2 20.8 25.6 43.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 21.0 33.9 19.6 68.7 45.2 35.9 23.5 35.0 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 31.6 44.0 25.5 75.6 46.1 39.9 34.8 49.1 67.6 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 35.0 49.0 36.1 73.5 39.9 37.1 41.5 55.0 70.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 27.6 45.0 23.3 76.3 47.5 40.2 37.4 50.8 70.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 30.3 37.5 40.7 78.3 39.6 40.2 33.5 48.7 64.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 27.1 37.0 20.8 70.1 47.6 36.5 32.4 38.5 50.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 37.0 54.9 26.9 83.5 52.9 43.3 43.3 54.1 60.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 28.7 38.9 23.7 77.0 46.1 40.5 32.2 44.0 59.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 32.7 44.1 29.8 73.1 41.2 37.6 41.3 53.9 76.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 32.2 37.5 23.1 65.6 40.2 34.3 30.8 47.0 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 20.6 36.3 18.9 75.2 47.8 40.9 26.1 36.6 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 29.1 37.7 24.4 70.9 42.9 37.5 26.2 40.5 63.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 22.9 26.3 19.6 62.0 43.2 35.7 25.2 29.3 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 48.8 69.1 38.2 77.5 40.9 38.8 61.3 75.3 94.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 26.4 32.8 23.9 75.7 43.8 39.9 26.0 41.2 48.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------