***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 20.2 5.2 128.4 78.1 50.9 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.4 20.1 4.7 78.6 65.8 50.9 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.6 15.4 5.0 106.8 72.7 53.1 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.4 23.0 4.0 92.0 65.4 50.7 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.7 13.4 4.7 103.3 69.4 50.3 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.6 16.3 7.3 98.1 70.0 46.3 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.8 4.8 77.9 65.0 50.5 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.5 30.8 8.0 127.7 77.5 53.2 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.7 19.4 5.1 104.7 72.7 50.4 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.9 27.7 7.7 118.6 75.8 52.8 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 26.3 5.5 153.6 79.8 51.3 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.7 22.6 5.7 142.4 79.6 52.6 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.2 10.8 5.7 115.5 73.0 49.5 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.3 14.3 5.6 81.1 63.4 49.1 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 18.6 3.7 113.7 73.7 50.6 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.0 14.8 4.8 119.7 71.9 49.0 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 12.2 23.6 3.9 61.3 63.8 51.6 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 19.8 8.2 101.4 69.9 52.1 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.3 20.6 4.5 81.5 66.0 51.5 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 19.0 9.5 97.6 69.8 53.2 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.4 17.5 4.2 107.8 74.8 51.6 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.1 4.1 68.6 60.8 50.6 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.5 11.4 4.4 79.6 65.0 52.5 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.1 18.9 6.2 98.2 68.5 51.6 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.4 16.2 5.1 107.8 66.8 48.7 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.9 21.4 5.7 152.9 79.0 54.0 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 19.1 5.9 118.3 75.1 49.4 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.1 13.2 4.0 98.8 71.6 50.1 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.4 28.1 8.2 99.6 68.6 51.3 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.5 13.5 5.1 92.1 67.9 51.3 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------