***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.7 23.7 5.9 100.8 73.5 51.4 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.2 11.3 6.9 85.8 66.3 45.7 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.1 9.2 6.0 87.7 69.6 48.1 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 13.6 4.5 54.7 65.2 45.0 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 1.7 10.4 5.5 65.6 61.8 43.7 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.9 6.0 57.5 60.2 45.8 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.8 6.0 7.1 82.0 66.5 43.2 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.5 20.3 7.7 94.8 67.8 47.6 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.4 10.5 6.7 77.8 68.8 46.0 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.1 10.8 8.0 84.4 66.0 45.4 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.0 14.0 4.3 65.1 64.9 43.6 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.1 13.6 4.5 78.6 69.0 47.7 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.5 10.7 4.2 59.7 62.0 44.4 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 1.8 14.5 9.0 91.6 67.2 42.5 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.7 3.5 51.0 65.2 46.1 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.4 8.1 3.5 50.9 60.4 42.0 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.1 8.0 6.8 79.8 63.2 44.8 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.8 16.4 9.5 79.6 63.1 41.7 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.5 17.2 6.6 92.4 69.4 46.5 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 3.4 18.1 10.5 92.5 64.0 45.9 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.7 24.0 5.6 79.8 71.7 47.5 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.9 7.0 92.8 65.7 45.6 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 0.8 15.3 6.6 97.1 70.0 45.9 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.3 13.8 8.0 80.1 64.0 41.9 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.6 16.7 6.0 75.1 68.6 45.0 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.0 15.0 3.7 78.4 70.3 49.3 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.2 15.6 6.7 89.3 69.2 47.2 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.1 6.9 3.8 46.9 63.3 45.2 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.5 22.7 10.0 83.9 63.0 42.6 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.2 7.4 6.9 90.2 68.1 46.9 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------