***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.8 5.7 82.2 68.7 48.4 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.3 5.0 5.4 73.4 61.0 44.6 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 22.0 5.7 75.8 67.3 46.6 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.6 24.7 7.7 107.5 71.2 50.6 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.2 18.3 7.9 102.0 70.9 47.7 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.6 16.8 11.2 120.3 70.5 51.8 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.7 14.2 5.2 66.7 61.2 42.5 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.1 20.4 8.7 90.0 65.1 51.2 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.7 19.4 7.7 99.3 70.9 48.5 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 26.3 9.2 93.2 67.1 50.4 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.9 17.5 7.2 116.9 73.9 51.6 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 15.6 6.3 99.0 70.9 50.9 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.5 8.4 7.5 104.7 69.3 49.3 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.9 31.8 9.3 93.5 69.3 49.4 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.0 10.5 6.9 116.8 72.4 49.2 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.8 10.4 7.5 114.5 73.0 47.9 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.4 5.7 72.8 60.5 46.2 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.3 23.1 11.0 86.8 65.1 47.1 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.3 17.0 5.6 79.1 64.9 46.3 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.3 12.4 88.4 62.3 48.1 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.2 25.1 6.3 90.5 72.0 48.0 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.6 18.8 6.5 86.2 64.9 45.1 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.1 21.5 6.3 88.3 71.7 49.8 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.5 27.7 8.7 82.9 68.0 46.7 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.0 13.3 6.9 81.1 65.0 43.1 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.2 17.6 5.7 104.1 71.2 52.0 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 15.6 6.4 75.2 64.5 44.6 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.1 20.3 7.7 117.5 71.7 49.7 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 26.4 11.9 95.7 67.8 49.3 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.8 14.6 5.4 73.4 62.6 44.3 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------