***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 3.9 4.2 4.9 40.8 34.3 31.6 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.4 6.7 7.1 67.6 43.9 37.6 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 2.5 5.8 5.5 48.7 38.0 32.2 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 3.0 3.4 4.5 34.5 30.5 25.5 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 3.7 5.1 5.2 39.1 31.1 26.1 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 1.1 0.9 4.7 37.3 30.2 25.4 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.3 8.2 73.2 50.1 40.8 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 4.5 7.1 5.6 40.7 31.5 27.8 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.8 5.3 5.4 42.0 36.2 27.3 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.2 6.2 6.4 44.0 34.3 28.7 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 1.2 2.4 3.9 36.5 33.6 25.6 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 2.7 0.5 3.7 34.5 29.1 24.7 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 0.7 0.3 4.1 35.9 24.0 22.1 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.8 7.0 8.5 55.2 43.2 32.5 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 1.1 1.8 4.1 34.4 37.7 25.7 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 0.6 1.0 3.8 34.6 29.3 22.7 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.3 9.1 82.5 54.1 44.8 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 4.9 5.0 7.4 45.3 34.5 27.7 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 4.1 5.2 6.5 61.4 42.5 35.3 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 3.9 5.3 8.3 49.9 34.8 29.7 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.1 6.5 4.6 39.9 38.3 29.5 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.7 10.5 9.4 84.4 55.2 45.4 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.4 6.5 57.0 42.6 34.3 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.5 4.6 7.0 49.7 37.9 30.5 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 3.4 3.3 5.1 36.4 30.8 25.1 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 0.8 0.1 3.8 34.1 28.7 23.2 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 3.0 3.4 5.4 40.6 32.3 29.0 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 1.5 2.7 4.1 32.1 33.3 24.6 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 6.9 10.5 8.1 48.7 33.5 29.4 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.3 6.1 6.5 59.2 41.8 35.6 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------