***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 29.8 30.0 31.5 1.4 75.9 71.4 28.5 29.4 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 29.7 29.9 31.8 1.5 76.3 70.8 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 29.9 30.2 31.4 1.3 75.5 69.4 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 23.3 23.5 29.5 1.1 72.4 69.0 21.7 22.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.8 29.5 1.1 71.8 69.1 28.9 29.6 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 29.1 29.3 27.0 1.0 72.3 69.1 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.7 31.8 1.6 76.9 71.7 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 18.4 19.0 28.1 1.7 81.3 76.8 16.9 17.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.5 30.1 1.4 76.9 72.3 28.5 29.0 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 29.9 30.3 28.6 1.5 79.0 74.0 28.0 29.0 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.4 29.1 1.2 75.4 71.3 28.5 29.0 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 29.3 29.7 29.3 1.7 80.6 77.4 27.9 28.2 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 30.5 30.7 28.7 1.4 75.5 72.9 28.7 29.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 29.8 30.1 29.4 1.3 73.8 69.3 27.8 28.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.3 31.6 30.9 1.5 77.3 74.5 29.5 30.4 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 31.3 31.4 28.9 1.1 72.8 69.2 29.3 30.4 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 28.9 29.1 31.0 1.1 70.7 65.3 27.5 28.1 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 28.8 29.1 27.7 1.4 77.8 72.4 27.4 27.8 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 29.2 29.5 31.9 1.6 76.8 71.7 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 24.7 25.0 25.5 1.3 78.0 72.4 23.0 23.7 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.4 30.9 1.3 74.6 69.8 28.5 29.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.3 30.8 1.1 68.1 65.0 28.0 28.4 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 29.4 29.8 31.6 1.8 79.8 74.1 28.1 28.7 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 29.2 29.4 29.4 1.4 75.5 70.5 27.8 28.4 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.4 29.9 1.3 74.7 70.6 29.0 29.6 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 30.1 30.3 29.0 1.6 77.3 76.2 28.6 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 29.5 29.8 30.7 1.5 77.1 72.2 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 30.7 30.8 30.0 1.1 72.7 69.5 29.4 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 24.0 24.3 26.7 1.4 77.7 72.5 22.4 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 29.7 30.0 32.0 1.6 77.4 72.1 28.2 29.1 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------