***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 31.0 31.4 32.3 1.6 68.7 64.1 28.0 29.1 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.9 32.6 1.7 68.5 63.5 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.4 32.1 1.4 67.5 62.0 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.9 24.1 30.4 1.1 65.9 61.8 20.8 22.2 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.6 30.2 1.2 66.0 61.6 28.5 29.4 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 29.1 30.0 28.0 1.2 65.3 63.0 27.0 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.7 32.5 1.7 70.8 64.7 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.9 19.6 28.7 1.5 71.4 65.4 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 30.7 30.7 30.6 1.3 67.9 62.9 28.0 28.6 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.2 29.1 1.4 70.0 63.8 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.6 30.8 29.8 1.3 68.1 63.1 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 29.7 30.2 30.0 1.6 70.7 66.0 27.3 28.5 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.8 29.4 1.4 69.2 64.5 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 30.2 30.1 30.0 1.4 67.7 62.5 27.6 28.3 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.5 31.6 31.3 1.5 70.6 65.3 29.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.9 31.1 29.7 1.1 64.9 61.8 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.7 31.9 1.4 68.3 62.3 27.7 28.3 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 29.3 29.8 28.3 1.4 71.0 63.0 26.6 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 30.6 32.6 1.7 68.2 63.4 27.5 28.6 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 24.4 26.0 26.1 1.2 69.8 62.5 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 31.0 30.9 31.5 1.3 68.4 62.3 27.8 29.1 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.6 30.9 31.8 1.4 68.4 61.6 28.0 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 29.1 30.7 32.2 1.7 69.1 64.0 27.7 28.3 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 28.6 30.2 30.0 1.4 69.3 62.6 27.3 28.1 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 31.4 30.9 30.7 1.5 68.7 64.0 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 30.0 30.9 29.8 1.5 66.6 65.7 28.0 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 30.7 30.7 31.5 1.7 69.5 65.2 28.0 28.7 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.6 31.6 30.8 1.1 66.1 62.0 29.1 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 23.6 25.5 27.2 1.4 70.7 62.7 22.4 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.3 30.7 32.7 1.6 68.3 63.7 27.8 28.8 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------