***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 31.1 31.8 32.5 2.0 80.4 70.2 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 31.1 31.8 32.7 2.1 78.4 70.0 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 31.2 32.0 32.3 1.8 77.8 68.7 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 24.3 25.1 30.6 1.6 77.2 68.1 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 31.6 32.3 30.4 1.6 78.4 68.5 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.9 28.0 1.5 78.7 69.2 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 31.0 31.7 32.7 2.2 79.5 71.1 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 19.1 20.1 29.0 2.1 84.3 73.8 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 31.1 31.9 30.8 1.8 79.8 70.0 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.7 29.4 1.9 81.6 71.5 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 31.2 32.1 30.0 1.7 78.4 70.9 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 30.3 31.3 30.3 2.1 84.1 74.8 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 31.5 32.2 29.6 1.8 81.2 72.2 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.5 30.1 1.8 77.7 68.0 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 31.9 32.7 31.5 2.0 82.9 72.0 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 32.1 32.7 29.8 1.5 76.2 69.0 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 30.5 30.7 31.9 1.7 70.5 66.9 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.4 28.6 1.9 80.5 70.2 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.8 32.7 2.1 79.7 70.0 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 25.4 26.2 26.4 1.7 80.1 69.8 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.9 31.7 1.7 78.2 68.7 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 30.9 30.8 31.7 1.6 72.2 66.2 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.6 32.3 2.1 80.0 70.6 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.4 30.2 1.8 79.3 69.2 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 31.7 32.5 30.8 1.9 81.1 70.3 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 30.9 31.5 30.0 2.0 82.8 73.9 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 31.0 31.8 31.6 2.1 81.3 71.4 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.7 32.3 30.9 1.6 77.7 68.6 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 25.1 26.0 27.5 1.8 81.1 69.8 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 31.1 32.0 32.9 2.1 79.5 70.5 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------