***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.5 30.4 30.4 0.7 61.8 57.2 27.6 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.3 30.4 30.9 0.8 65.5 57.5 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.8 30.2 30.3 0.5 59.5 55.4 27.8 29.3 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.7 28.2 0.0 52.6 51.2 21.4 22.3 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.5 30.2 28.1 0.1 54.4 51.9 28.1 30.1 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.8 25.6 -0.1 49.4 51.2 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 26.9 30.3 30.8 0.8 64.9 57.6 27.6 28.5 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 17.0 18.3 26.8 0.7 61.2 57.3 16.7 18.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 28.1 29.8 28.6 0.4 56.7 54.8 27.5 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 27.9 30.0 27.2 0.5 57.7 55.5 27.8 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.0 30.0 27.6 0.2 54.7 53.4 27.8 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.1 29.7 28.0 0.7 63.2 58.1 27.5 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.8 30.5 27.2 0.3 53.3 54.8 28.3 30.1 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.2 29.6 28.1 0.5 62.2 54.9 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 29.3 30.8 29.3 0.5 59.0 55.9 29.3 30.5 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 29.2 30.5 27.4 0.0 50.2 51.4 28.9 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 26.3 28.8 30.1 0.4 58.6 53.5 27.4 27.9 30.3 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 27.1 28.6 26.4 0.5 57.2 55.2 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 28.9 30.0 30.8 0.9 65.9 57.9 27.7 28.2 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 23.0 24.5 24.3 0.3 58.8 53.8 23.1 24.3 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.0 29.7 29.5 0.3 57.1 54.4 27.4 29.5 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.1 29.3 29.9 0.4 56.1 53.1 27.2 28.3 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.1 30.3 30.4 0.9 68.0 58.8 27.7 28.4 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.3 29.1 28.1 0.5 57.9 55.0 27.1 28.7 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 28.0 30.0 28.6 0.4 58.8 55.2 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 30.8 30.4 27.7 0.6 60.1 57.7 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.1 30.0 29.6 0.7 62.6 57.6 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 29.1 30.8 28.6 0.0 52.7 51.7 28.7 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.9 25.4 0.4 57.0 54.8 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.1 29.9 30.9 0.9 64.9 58.1 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------