***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 29.9 30.5 30.8 1.5 73.2 70.2 27.4 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 29.6 29.6 31.2 1.6 70.1 67.7 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 29.9 30.5 30.9 1.6 75.5 69.3 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 23.0 23.2 28.6 1.6 75.9 72.3 21.0 21.5 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 30.2 31.0 29.3 1.6 77.1 71.7 28.1 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 28.7 28.7 26.4 1.3 71.8 68.9 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 29.7 29.7 31.1 1.6 70.7 67.9 27.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 18.0 19.4 27.8 2.4 82.6 77.9 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 29.8 31.3 30.5 2.1 82.5 75.7 27.4 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 29.3 30.4 28.6 2.2 82.3 76.4 27.3 27.9 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 29.7 30.5 29.0 1.7 78.5 72.4 27.7 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 29.0 30.3 29.0 2.4 83.9 79.0 27.0 27.7 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 29.9 30.7 28.7 1.8 80.6 74.5 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 29.3 29.9 29.2 1.6 77.1 68.7 27.2 28.3 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 30.7 31.5 31.4 2.1 81.7 77.4 29.0 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 31.1 31.7 28.9 1.6 77.6 72.2 28.7 29.5 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.4 28.5 30.1 0.9 60.4 60.3 26.9 28.0 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 28.3 29.2 27.4 2.0 80.3 74.0 26.6 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 29.4 30.0 31.3 1.8 75.1 70.8 27.5 28.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 24.3 24.9 25.3 1.9 78.3 73.5 22.0 22.9 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.0 30.9 30.9 1.6 77.3 70.6 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 28.8 29.1 29.9 1.0 63.0 61.0 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 29.6 31.0 31.3 2.3 83.0 76.6 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.9 29.2 1.7 79.3 71.2 26.8 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 29.9 30.2 29.4 1.4 74.1 68.4 27.9 28.7 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 29.6 30.1 28.5 2.2 80.3 77.7 27.7 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.6 29.9 1.4 70.9 68.2 27.0 28.0 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 30.9 31.2 29.8 1.7 76.9 72.9 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 23.8 24.6 26.6 2.0 79.2 74.3 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 29.6 30.2 31.3 1.7 75.1 70.1 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------