***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.5 19.9 0.7 72.5 65.7 15.6 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.7 19.9 0.7 70.3 64.2 15.0 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.7 19.6 0.5 66.4 60.7 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.7 17.3 0.1 56.6 53.5 12.9 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.6 17.0 0.2 58.2 54.1 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.5 15.1 0.2 61.1 55.7 12.8 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 16.7 16.9 20.1 0.9 74.3 67.3 15.5 16.2 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.3 9.6 15.4 0.7 75.0 66.7 8.6 8.9 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.7 16.0 17.6 0.5 68.4 61.4 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.8 15.9 0.5 69.0 61.1 15.1 15.5 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.3 16.5 0.2 60.6 55.5 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.8 13.9 16.4 0.6 72.7 67.0 12.9 13.3 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.5 15.6 0.2 63.2 58.5 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.6 17.4 0.4 62.4 57.6 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.8 17.2 18.7 0.4 66.5 61.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.1 16.2 0.1 60.1 54.1 15.3 16.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.0 19.1 0.4 61.7 58.1 15.9 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 15.1 0.4 66.1 59.0 13.1 13.9 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.5 19.8 0.7 71.9 64.5 15.3 15.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.2 13.2 0.4 66.3 60.2 9.3 9.9 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 15.4 15.8 18.9 0.5 63.6 60.9 15.0 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.7 19.1 0.4 59.3 57.1 15.0 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 15.9 16.2 19.6 0.8 76.3 66.7 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.5 17.3 0.4 63.9 58.2 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.6 16.0 18.3 0.4 66.1 61.0 15.0 15.4 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.7 14.7 15.7 0.5 69.0 64.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.4 19.0 0.7 73.4 65.4 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.7 17.8 0.2 60.7 55.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.5 14.5 0.4 69.2 60.7 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.9 20.2 0.8 73.4 66.3 15.5 16.2 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------