***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.6 17.2 20.6 1.1 66.7 64.0 15.6 16.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 16.6 17.4 20.7 1.2 70.1 64.6 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.6 19.2 20.3 0.9 64.5 61.4 17.1 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.4 18.1 0.5 66.0 58.7 12.9 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.5 17.6 0.6 65.0 58.9 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.0 15.8 0.5 63.5 58.1 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 16.8 17.5 20.8 1.3 70.9 66.0 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 10.1 10.3 16.0 1.0 68.0 64.4 8.4 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.6 18.1 0.8 65.8 60.9 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.7 16.5 0.8 64.7 62.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.4 17.3 0.7 67.5 61.6 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.3 14.5 17.2 1.0 71.8 66.0 13.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 15.6 15.3 16.3 0.8 68.8 64.1 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.5 18.1 0.8 67.1 61.2 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.8 17.6 19.2 0.8 68.8 62.7 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.0 17.0 0.6 68.5 60.6 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 17.1 17.7 19.8 0.9 66.5 61.3 15.8 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.2 15.9 0.8 65.3 62.3 13.5 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.7 17.1 20.6 1.1 68.8 63.8 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.0 13.9 0.7 61.9 60.0 9.3 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.7 19.5 0.8 64.3 60.8 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.4 19.7 0.8 64.0 59.9 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.6 20.2 1.1 69.6 64.3 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.0 18.0 0.8 64.6 62.0 16.0 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.5 17.1 18.9 0.9 66.3 63.2 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.2 16.6 0.9 66.8 63.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.6 17.7 19.7 1.2 68.8 65.7 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.3 18.6 0.6 66.0 59.3 14.4 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.3 15.2 0.8 66.3 62.2 12.5 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 17.0 17.7 20.9 1.2 70.1 64.7 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------